Trump tariffs may be starting to have impact on back-to-school shopping, data shows

Heading into the back-to-school shopping season, parents should know the worst effects of President Donald Trump’s tariffs haven’t yet affected the prices of most items — but there are certainly categories that are already seeing price increases. 

One category for which data suggests price increases have already occurred is “educational books and supplies,” a category the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics defines as “elementary, high school, and college textbooks and reference books.”

Consumer price data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that prices in the category were up 9% year over year as of May 2025.

“We are seeing it a little bit,” said Jason Miller, a professor of supply chain management at Michigan State University. ”Right now, it’s not going to be that pronounced, but compared to a counterfactual world where none of these tariffs take place, you’re paying more for back-to-school than you would have otherwise.”

There’s some insulation from price spikes in other categories because of existing inventory that was already in the country before Trump’s tariff policies went into effect, say both Miller and Rudolf Leuschner, a professor of supply chain management at Rutgers University.

“Everything that had to do with back-to-school is also going to have been in the country since at least June, July,” Leuschner said. “So it’s already available locally and it has been sitting in warehouses.”

Another factor is that prices are already quite low for basic supplies.

“Back-to-school products are very — I mean, pencils themselves are very commoditized,” Leuschner said. “And I don’t know of a lot of consumers who are going to say, Oh, I will only buy a certain No. 2 pencil brand and not buy anything else.”

Sports equipment is one category for which a clear increase in prices can be seen, and its timing correlates with the advent of Trump’s tariff regime, Miller said.

“Sports equipment was trending down fairly sharply, and then it actually has increased a little bit, especially in June,” he said. “That would be consistent with tariffs.”

Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows prices for sports equipment were down year over year by 0.5% as of June 2025, but had actually increased by 1.8% from just a month prior, nearly erasing price declines that had occurred in preceding months.

A category that’s seen price increases, which might be relevant for parents moving their teens into their first dorm rooms, is furniture.

“Furniture is more expensive,” Miller said. “Rugs, window coverings, things like that are more expensive. We are seeing the price of domestically made furniture going up.”

Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers show that prices in the “furniture and bedding” product category has begun to increase after two years of price declines. For the first half of 2025, prices in the category are up 1% compared to the previous six months, and while they’re still down 0.9% year over year, the increase is notable compared to data from this time last year. For the first half of 2024, prices for the category had dropped by 3.8%.

Miller believes more price increases are coming, though, as tariffs begin to stabilize.

“I suspect we’re going to start seeing more — where you may see the tariff-driven inflation show up a little bit more is going to be the holiday shopping, because we would be in a period where there’s more stability for tariffs, and that puts — I think that changes the nature of the conversations about cost pass-through,” he said.

Still, the future is uncertain, as the Trump administration’s tariff policies change by the day, and sometimes by the hour.

The president hit the pause button on most of his “reciprocal” tariffs in April, but they are scheduled to resume on Aug. 1. Facing that deadline, Trump in a Truth Social post on July 31 suddenly announced another 90-day pause on tariffs applied to products from Mexico.

It was unclear as of press time what other adjustments Trump might make to his tariff rates. But one thing is clear: The average U.S. tariff rate is now at its highest in more than 90 years, according to a report from Yale University’s Budget Lab. The tariff rate is now at an average of 18%, the highest since 1934, and consumers will spend an estimated $2,400 more this year than they otherwise would have, the report says.